How the upgrader calculates your odds
The exact chance formula, why it caps at 75%, what under and over mean, and a table of real chances from a 1.2x upgrade up to a 100x moonshot.
The upgrader trades coins for a chance at something worth more. You stake coins from your balance, pick any priced skin as the target, and one roll decides whether you win its value.
The formula
Call the total value you put in V and the target's value T. Your chance of winning is:
chance = min(0.75, (V / T) × 0.95)The 0.95 is the house edge of 5%. Put in 10 coins for a 20-coin skin and your chance is 10/20 × 0.95 = 47.5%. On average that returns 0.475 × 20 = 9.50 coins for every 10 you put in, which is the 95% return to player.
Limits and the 75% cap
- The target must be worth between 1.2x and 100x what you put in. Anything closer than 1.2x is barely an upgrade; anything past 100x has a chance under 1%.
- The chance never goes above 75%. The cap only matters for the smallest upgrades: below roughly 1.27x the formula would give more than 75%, so those upgrades return a little less than 95% on average. If you want the full 95%, aim for 1.27x or higher.
- Every wear and StatTrak version of a skin is its own target with its own price. A win pays exactly the price shown on the picker for the version you picked.
| Upgrade | Chance | Average return |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2x | 75.00% (capped) | 90.0% |
| 1.25x | 75.00% (capped) | 93.8% |
| 1.5x | 63.33% | 95.0% |
| 2x | 47.50% | 95.0% |
| 5x | 19.00% | 95.0% |
| 10x | 9.50% | 95.0% |
| 25x | 3.80% | 95.0% |
| 100x | 0.95% | 95.0% |
Under or over
The roll is a single float between 0 and 1. Choosing under puts your win zone at the bottom of the dial: you win if the roll is below your chance. Choosing over puts it at the top: you win if the roll is at least 1 minus your chance. Both zones are exactly the same size, so the choice never changes your odds. It only changes which part of the dial you are cheering for.
What you lose, and what you win
Win or lose, your stake is spent. A win pays the target's price in coins straight to your balance, instantly. A loss returns nothing. Every upgrade counts its full stake towards your rank, rakeback and the weekly race.